How do we win?
I appreciate your interest!
I have more than 10+ years of experience with sports betting. I am not a huge sports fan. I am a numbers geek.
I have created two algorithms that work independently, and you will receive betting tips from both of them.
It's easy to test hypotheses out once you have the data and the know-how.
Here is a few examples of what my systems take into consideration.
1. Popular matches are more profitable than unpopular matches
Bookmakers are trying to ensure a profit no matter the result, so they will lower their odds as much as possible. However, they are also competing for your money, which means that they compete between themselves. That competition results in higher odds. Most money is placed on popular matches, hence bookmakers are competing heavily for that money. In conclusion, popular matches offer higher odds compared to risk (ROI).
2. Home teams tend to please their home crowd
Football is a low scoring game with many parameters. Red cards and goals from penalties, corners and free kicks are all something that makes football unpredictable. Home teams have a tendency to come out on top. The crowd, referee, no travel and familiarity are all parameters that affect this well known fact.
3. Favorites tend to win
Favorites are deemed to be the better side for a reason. They consistently perform better than most of their competitors. However, not all individuals, teams and competitions are equally predictable.